TriMet Board of Directors Approved a plan to reduce service on 34 bus lines, with most changes taking effect August 2026, plus shortening the MAX Green Line.

TriMet General Manager (public capacity) Warned the agency faces a "fiscal cliff in 2030" and must cut at least 10% of service by July 2028.

Oregon Legislature Passed HB 3991 in a Sept. 2025 special session doubling the transit payroll tax — voters then referred and rejected it in May 2026.

Nearly half of TriMet's 2026 $1.96 billion budget — about $555 million — is supported by payroll tax revenue. But the revenue side is buckling: remote work is keeping riders from returning, and the downtown office vacancy rate remains near a historic high.

On the cost side, the math got brutal. Costs jumped about 56% from 2019 through 2025, and TriMet's fuel costs surged as much as 84% over weekly budgeted amounts in 2026. Meanwhile, the agency's FY26 budget dedicates more than $83 million to security efforts — more than double what it allocated three years ago.

TriMet has trimmed everything it can find. The agency says it has already reduced spending by roughly $150 million since last July, when it announced the $300 million budget shortfall, largely through internal changes, including staff layoffs. Overall staffing has dropped more than 500 positions since July 1, 2025, from 3,708 positions to 3,204 positions following planned layoffs by end of summer 2026.

And it still isn't enough. The anticipated service cuts add up to about an 18% overall reduction in MAX service — the largest cut to MAX in its history — and about an 8% reduction in bus service, the third largest cut since at least 1986.

THE PATTERN

Nobody here is the villain. Inflation ate the operating budget, COVID stole the ridership, the Legislature wrote a check the voters tore up, and a $575M train built for downtown commuters in 2009 is being amputated because the 2026 commute didn't show up. The Green Line isn't a scandal — it's a stranded asset. The receipt just hasn't caught up to the headline yet.

Portland Mayor (public capacity) Proposed using $75 million in PCEF revenues toward the city's contribution to a Moda Center renovation aimed at keeping the Trail Blazers in Portland.

Portland City Council Sent a Feb. 12 letter signed by all 12 councilors and the mayor urging the Legislature to pass SB 1501, the Moda funding bill — though several councilors say they did not endorse the PCEF piece.

PCEF Committee The eight-member volunteer body that recommends PCEF spending. Has stayed largely silent on the Moda proposal and was not consulted in advance.

City Auditor (public capacity) Released a Feb. 2026 audit warning the city is leaning on PCEF as a 'realistic funding source' for work the fund was not designed to support.

PCEF has already become a de facto general fund stopgap. Over the past two years, the city has used an estimated $25 million from the interest generated by PCEF. Nearly $19 million of generated interest from PCEF went into the general fund for FY 25-26.

City bureaus have also colonized the climate fund. According to the most recent estimates, six city bureaus will receive about $740 million through mid-2029. More than $623 million has gone to these city programs, spurring years of back-and-forth conversations about the original intent of the fund and budget gaps.

Then there's the Moda Center. Portland City Council is divided over a plan to publicly fund a $600 million Moda Center renovation. In total, the city of Portland — which owns the Moda Center — would be expected to invest more than $400 million in the renovation and subsequent upkeep. The mayor proposed that $75 million of that could come out of the Portland Clean Energy Community Benefits Fund (PCEF).

The catch: there's nothing left lying around. All of PCEF's funds have been allocated through 2028. In order to divert climate funds to the Moda Center over the next few years, other programs would face cuts. Voters do not appear to want it: according to a new poll from The Oregonian, 55% of voters oppose using money from the Portland Clean Energy Community Benefits Fund for the arena.

THE PATTERN

The 2018 ballot title said "clean energy." Eight years later, PCEF has paid for $623M of city bureau projects, $19M of general fund holes, and is being eyed for $75M of luxury suites. The fund is doing the thing all unexpectedly-flush civic accounts do: becoming the answer to whatever the question is. Voters wrote the ballot measure narrowly. Council is reading it broadly. That gap is the saga.

Metro Council Voted in June 2025 not to refer an SHS renewal to the November 2025 ballot after a commissioned poll showed weak support, despite the tax exceeding its housing targets.

Clackamas County Housing Authority Surpassed the SHS Measure mandate to place 1,065 households in permanent supportive housing five years ahead of the 10-year deadline.

Multnomah County Homeless Services Department Spent $143.5 million in FY24 — 174% of the prior year — and reported 89% of households in SHS-funded permanent supportive housing remained in housing one year later.

The fund overshot its revenue forecast almost immediately. Personal income tax collections totaled $146.7 million in fiscal year 2022, rising to $184.1 million in FY 2023, $189.1 million in FY 2024, and $203.7 million in FY 2025. That blew up early spending plans — for a while, the counties literally couldn't move the money fast enough.

Then the programs caught up. In the four years since the first funding became available, the counties and their partners have used these dollars to place nearly 8,800 households (over 13,800 people) in housing, provide housing stabilization services on over 18,711 occasions, and create or sustain 2,620 shelter beds or units.

Clackamas County is the clearest signal that the program works. Five years early, Clackamas County has surpassed the SHS Measure mandate to place 1,065 households in permanent supportive housing and stabilize 2,130 households. Washington County also exceeded its FY25 housing and stabilization goals across the board.

And yet: Last week, the Metro Council decided it would not ask voters to extend a regional homeless services tax on the November ballot. A poll the Metro Council recently commissioned suggests that voters in the region appear to be questioning its effectiveness to help combat a crisis that has only gotten worse since the tax went into effect four years ago. The poll found that 53% of respondents said they would vote "yes" to reauthorize the tax, while 43% said they would oppose it. A solid majority — and Metro still pulled it.

THE PATTERN

This is the program-sympathetic saga. SHS is meeting and exceeding its housing targets. Multnomah's permanent-supportive-housing retention rate is 89%. Clackamas hit a 10-year goal in 4 years. By the standard voters approved in 2020, this is what working looks like. The reason Metro didn't trust a 53% poll to carry a renewal is that visible homelessness hasn't gone down — and voters grade the tax on the sidewalk, not on the spreadsheet. The receipt is good. The vibes are bad. The fund expires in 2030 anyway.